Welcome to the Stack In the Box podcast. I am Sterling Holmes. No, Ian mcmillan, he was
doubtful with a illness and unlike Max Crosby, he could not bounce back. So Ian mcmillan, uh
he's been downgraded to out for today's show, but Mike Luciano will be filling in in his
place. Mike. How are you? Well, I, I'm upset. We couldn't get a Michael Jordan flu game, but
I will dutifully do my best to sub in for Ian uh feeling OK, because I actually think I might
be on track to go play in the NFL because I scored as many points as my beloved New York
Jets did this weekend. So if that's the barometer for success, maybe I can get in, I
won't turn the ball over three times. Like Trevor Simeon, I'll get sacked on every play
but I won't fumble it like Simeon did. Uh you say that now until you get hit by a dude
chasing you. Uh I think the ball might be popping out. We've got a lot to talk about
today who's gonna make the playoffs biggest winners and losers? Uh Eagles look terrible yet
again in the year of the backup quarterback before we go any further Sleeper.
Sleeper add, they are joining us stacking the box as we are partnering with Sleeper Daily
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remember to always game responsibly scan the QR code on screen to see if you qualify. All
right, Mike, let's start with biggest winners. I'll let you go first here. Biggest winner for
this past week. I mean, there couldn't be a bigger one than Baker Mayfield, right? 381
yards and four touchdowns. And the first player in NFL history to have a perfect passer
rating at Lambeau field against the Packers. I'm just happy for him because for so much of
his career in Cleveland Carolina L A, not really L A but Cleveland Carolina. He had
horrible coaches, number one and the number two horrible coaches that kept getting fired
and they keep churning new ones in even though not the biggest Todd Bulls fan. I think the
world of Dave Canalis is offensive coordinator , Geno Smith won't shut up about how great he is.
He's finally in a system where they believe in him and he believes in them and look what's
happening right now. They're pulling off some good wins. If the season ended today, they'd
host a home playoff game and they play New Orleans. We 16. I think there's a very good
chance that the Bucks end up winning some of their last few games. And then Baker Mayfield
was hosting a home playoff game, I think at this point it would be, even though I don't
think he's necessarily like a lock to be a franchise guy, he has to be the starter next
year, which can, considering what they signed him for and what his value was when they signed
him. What a comeback for Baker Mayfield, considering Baker Mayfield is only 28 years old.
He is a lot younger than you might think he is . Again, I don't think he's a franchise
quarterback either, but you have to start making that hard decision as he, uh, might be
getting the Buccaneers into the playoffs for me, biggest winner, Colts, Houston Seahawks,
three teams, obviously in the playoff hunt had to have a Seahawks last night which we'll talk
about more a little later on in the show. You know, this was a game that you think they're
dropping backup quarterback against the Eagles , right? Tough game. Drew lock gets it done.
That was a huge win for the Seahawks keeping their playoff hopes alive. Then Houston without
CJ Strout found a way to get it done and finally, the Colts perpetually underrated this
season. I don't know how to view them. Like, I don't think they're a good team, but yet here
they sit at eight and six Gardner menu and this team getting it done all of the issues
last year seemed to be resolved defensively on the offensive line. This is the offensive line
we were used to seeing in Indy, they are back. So for me, the biggest winners are those three
teams. I'm just so upset. We didn't get to see Anthony Richardson with this team. It would
have been so damn fun to see him the whole year. Well, now Gardner MSU, where is he going
to end up next year? He probably gonna give him like the Nick Foles Jaguars contract and
then I just can see it. I like mens, but I mean, I, I can see that happening a mile away.
Uh biggest loser. Who do you got here, Mike, it's gotta be a guy that, you know, pretty well.
Uh Cada Tony and I don't want to seem like I'm picking on a guy in a 2717 win, but that was a
game that Kansas City I think should have romped in and that was a struggle for a large
part of it. And then Tony with his new trademark move which is off his hands, bat the
ball around and get intercepted, which is now the second time this year, we've seen that
because it happened in the Lions game. You can make a direct case now that he is like the
receivers have just lost two games for him. The Philadelphia one with Valdez Scantling. I
have his hands and then the Lions won with Tony who's having pretty much as bad of a year,
like for a wide receiver that plays a lot, pretty much as bad of a year as you could
possibly have. I remember looking up his numbers because I hear Tony all the time. I'm
watching the Chiefs. Oh my God. They gotta be thrown out of a ton. He didn't even have 200
yards this year. He has six games this year of 10 or fewer yards and yet every game I hear his
name five times because he's doing something stupid like Kansas City just because of the
Mahomes factor is going to be fine. Generally, I think this year I'd be stunned if they, like,
don't win a playoff game, but the fact they keep trotting him out there. I don't know, I
know they're not working with a ton, but at a certain point, you gotta say enough is enough,
right? Yeah, I could not agree more. And by the way, I would say at least three games to
the Bills game. Uh, he was lined up offside, so three games where the one that was him,
Tony not complain about it, not having the best year. Tony has been very frustrating to
watch and I, I'm starting to, I have questions and maybe you'll, you'll have a good answer for
me, Mike here because I, this happened to me. Everyone keeps saying talent, talent, talent,
right? They're enamored by his talent and I was too, but I think we've been fooled. I think
sometimes we equate athleticism with talent. Um like, like Darius Hayward Bay,
right? Or, or John Ross or John Brown, you know, we, we get so enamored with 40 times in
quickness and speed and all that stuff, you gotta catch the ball, you got to be able to use
that speed for good. not just be fast. Like I, I don't remember, do you remember Dante Hall?
Dante Hall was good though. No, no, no great, great return man. But, but no one said because
of his athleticism and quickness and speed that he was going to be this elite wide
receiver. No, no one did. But for some reason, Tony we did and I, and I don't understand, I
think we're getting fooled in equating athleticism with talent. He's Gen Z. Tavon
Austin is what he is where people got so enamored by the Ta. I mean, everybody did those
West Virginia teams with Tavon Austin were fun and I feel like people forgot to check. Oh,
wait, can the guy actually play because like when he is juking five guys, it looks cool. The
punt return to the Super Bowl. I mean that, that validated the trade immediately but I mean
that doesn't necessarily excuse everything else. One really cool play. That doesn't mean
Desmond Howard was a great player because he had that return in the Super Bowl, I can't play.
Yeah. And so when you look at it, Cas Tony, he'll, he'll probably get his snap count and
cut back even more. But sky more placed on the IR for Kansas City, Richie James looking like
according to Andy Reid will get a bigger sample size at wide receiver Vin mccole Hardin
will be coming off of the IR and then Justin Ross uh remains to be seen how much he gets
involved as the season. Uh, regular season at least is starting to come to an end for me. My
biggest loser was the Eagles yet again, getting their ass kicked Eagles look like
frauds. Ian mcmillan called it. I thought he was writing a little hot take article. Uh He
was not, he was correct. Uh Too bad. Ian's not here to hear me. Give him his uh hi. Hi, his
flowers because the Eagles look horrible, man. Bad Jalen Hurtz. What happened? I know you're
sick but I was sick watching you play football . Um The defense is atrocious.
I mean, that secondary is bad. I mean, the defensive line don't get me wrong is still very
talented for the Eagles, but they're not getting the sack numbers they had last year,
even with the talent they have and then that, that, that secondary, I know they've had some
injuries. Don't, don't get me wrong but they're bad. That's one of the worst
secondaries in the entire NFL and I do wonder if a lot of the coaching change has anything to
do with it because you do see a lot of the same players, but the regression has been
noticeable obviously, as I lost, uh Jonathan Gannon to Arizona and then the Jags to me, Jags
needed to have this game. Jags had everything going their way. They were what, eight and
three and now they said at eight and six man, now the Colts, now the Texans all sitting there
at eight and six with you. You thought the AFC South was locked, someone put the key in, it's
unlocked wide open. I don't want to be too hard on the Jags because number one, Trevor
Lawrence, I mean, the discussion was gonna be, is he gonna play ever again in this season? How
many, how much time is he going to miss? He didn't miss any time and then unlikely he gets
maybe the two best defenses in the league. Browns, Ravens back to back. I mean, on, on one
leg, I don't think that's ideal either, but I think with the Ravens game, I think exposes, I
just don't think out because I think Lawrence is still really, really good. I just don't
think the Jaguars roster 1 to 53 is as good as I thought they were. Like, I think Calvin
Ridley is not a number one receiver. I feel like they're trying to make him one, but he's
not, the offensive line was playing pretty good earlier in the year, they just haven't
been very good. The last couple games ETN was unbelievable to start the year. Travis ETN,
he's kind of slowed up lately, like Lawrence, I think, kind of over like he was a band aid
who kind of hit a lot of those issues. Now. I think he's a little compromised and I think
you're seeing that, like, obviously I think he didn't have a great game against Baltimore, but
it's Ravens defense and he's got a half of a good receiver in Calvin Ridley and then that's
kind of it as far as wide receivers go. So I, I just need to like when Jacksonville was
healthy, they were beating everybody, they were supposed to beat and their losses were to
teams, you know, Kansas City, the Niners teams that are better than them. So I just feel like
they're kind of regressing to the mean here too and I think the injuries came at very
inopportune times. Yeah, I think Christian Kirk has been a big loss for them offensively,
obviously, but I've never been enamored with Trevor Lawrence. I don't think he's bad. I
think Trevor Lawrence is a good quarterback. I just don't think he's great. I thought the, the,
the, the talks about him being elite and in the same category as Joe Burrow and Josh Allen
II, I think it's Asinine II, I think he's a good quarterback. I don't think quarterback, I
think if he's top 10. He's 10. Like, he, he, to me and this year I think, proves it more
than anything else. Is he as good as Dak Prescott? Like, he's not as good as Dak
Prescott at least this season. Right. D's having a great year. That's, that's cherry pick.
And I understand that. But, but Trevor Lawrence to me is more so a Kirk Cousins type
quarterback than he is a Josh Allen. Joe Burrow or Maholmes quarterback again, you can
win with him, but you got to have a lot of talent around the dude that, that, that's my
thought process when it comes to Trevor Lawrence. Uh Chris Albright has a good, uh good,
good take here. I think a lot of fun, hot take instead of picking Jalen Carter might have been
smart to have drafted a wide receiver or DB I, I think David the back would have made the most
sense. Honestly. Um There were a couple of guys that could have gone with, um Christian
Gonzalez, obviously, he ended up getting injured, the Patriots this season, but that was
a guy who I was very high on shocked, he fell as far down as he did again when you have that
much depth in the defensive line. I understand Jalen Carter's been incredible this season but
your d lines already so deep, you have a lot of question marks in that secondary. Wonder if
that would have been a smarter pick there. Um I guess Carter was in that rare tier where
you're like, how the hell did this? I mean, we know why happened the off field. So we know why
he fell that car, but it was just a point where you're like, all right, because at the
time that the secondary wasn't great, but it wasn't like, oh my God, we need two more
defensive backs like we do now. So I guess they're like, let's just take best player
available, which was clearly like, I, I don't fault Howie Roseman for that, especially with
Carter being as good as he is willing to pick, uh, before Kansas City, they went with the, uh,
Georgia, uh, edge rusher, Nolan Smith, no one Smith again. I, I think you're on to something
here, Chris, I think they, they, they're trying to bolster a strength. They can only get
so strong while the rest of the team starts to flounder. Uh, all right, top story which teams
are going to separate and make the playoffs. There's been so much average to above average
football being played this season. So many teams at eight and 67 and seven. ho ho how do
you see it shaking out here, Mike because there's so many teams and a lot of teams with
backup quarterbacks, teams that I thought were going to start fighting down. Well, they're
still there, the Browns, they're still there. You look at the Bengals, they're rising up like
Jake Browning is winning more games than Joe Burrow was. Again, Joe Burrow is being injured
but still, Jake Browning is finding ways to get it done. You know, I mentioned no CJ Stroud,
no problem Texans got it done. Drew lock, keeping the Seahawks alive. I mean, you look
around Gardner Men. She with the Colts like that might be the most underrated one. What do
you think of the, uh, crowded playoff race right here? Well, I think now a lot for a lot
of the, the playoff race, it seemed like a lot of the backup quarterbacks were honestly gonna
get it with teams like Pittsburgh, they've kind of fallen off lately. Minnesota coming
back to earth recently. I think finally they're starting to have a little bit of
aggression in the me even Buffalo who looked like they were dead and buried. They're back
into it now. It looks like they're probably, I think going to be, make a playoff that be one
of the playoff teams just because they're peaking at the right time when I, when I'm
looking at all these teams, all these 77 teams , which by the way, there are 77 and seven teams
and there are 58 and six teams in the NFL. So there, there's a lot of mid, oh, and there's 36
and eight teams. So there's a ton of mid right now in the NFL when I'm looking at them, if I
had to pick a couple. I'm just looking coach quarterback immediately and I think that's
eventually where you're gonna get your answers . So when I look at teams like Jacksonville
eight and six, I feel confident in Doug Peterson and Trevor Lawrence, at least more so
than some of the other guys. Houston. I feel very confident in guys like Damico Ryan CJ
stride even though they're young, I feel like they both show to be exceptional in this
particular area. And then I'm also looking at Cleveland, they might be the Cleveland is
really the only exception in my opinion because Cleveland, I don't love Stefanski and
obviously Joe Flacco at this stage of his career as Joe Flacco at this stage of his
career, they just had this death star defense that completely runs people over. Hey, Joe
Flacco got it done last game. I mean, I, I the interceptions were bad, don't get me wrong, but
when the game was on the line, Flacco stepped up, Darnell Mooney catches that pass, man. Then
it's, we're having a whole different discussion here. The Bears could be eight and
six too. They had like three choke jobs. The Bears could legitimately be in the playoffs
right now. They have flu le let's stick with the AFC right here. So you think Jacksonville
holds on and then wins the AFC South, correct? Even if they don't, I feel like they're gonna
be one of the wild card teams because they're scheduled to end the year they play the Titans
in Carolina. So I think that's probably two wins right there. So, then you have
Jacksonville in, ok. Uh, Miami and Buffalo. Um , I think actually Ian and I talked about this
last week. We don't think Buffalo is out of winning the AFC East. We think that there's a
decent possibility. The AFC East actually ends up being a Buffalo Bills team, um, because
they're playing some damn good football right now. So then you have both those teams in,
right? I feel like Buffalo's gonna be. And also because of the schedule too, they're at
the Chargers and then home against the Patriots. Well, then who do you have falling
out and then making it in the AFC? Because again, you have Cleveland at nine and five
since at eight and six, Indy at eight and six right now, the six and seven seed are Cy and
Indy Houston at eight and six. Buffalo eight and six. I still think Jacksonville
skin of their teeth wins the division, I think right now, Cleveland, Cleveland seems like a
lot to me on a wild card just because the defense is, is what it is. I think Houston
sneaks in and I think Buffalo sneaks in. So that unfortunately leaves my guy Shane Steichen
and the Indianapolis Colts on the outside looking in in the AFC, which is a shame because
I think Steichen might be a coach of the year guy. I mean, he picks Anthony Richardson game
three or four D for the year and yet here he is getting this team who nobody thought would
be good with Anthony Richardson, let alone with Gardner Mins. You, he has them on the
doorsteps of the playoffs and look at what the Eagles offense has become without him.
Realistically, week 18 is gonna be the most crazy week we have seen
in NFL history. Oh, it's, you know how they always do the Sunday night game where it's
always some pivotal win in your end thing. There could be like four win in your end games.
Oh, easy. I mean, you, you're looking at right now, the, the Texans and Colts right now, if,
if, if they hold serve, that might be for a final playoff spot, um, or even to an
extent that might be for the AFC South. Uh, again, you look at Buffalo, you look at their
schedule week 18. Who do they play the Bills? They play the Dolphins, Miami Dolphins, right?
I mean, you look around the NF the, the, the NFL, especially in the AFC right now. Uh,
Cincinnati their final three games. Who do, who do they play? Week 18? The Bengals, they
play the Bengals, right? Ok. The, the, the, the Bengals have a very difficult final stretch.
Ok, because they play the Steelers, the Chiefs and the Browns, but the Steelers are not
technically out just yet. Week 16, upcoming. This is gonna be a huge game for the Steelers
and I feel like Mike Tomlin just, I mean, he hasn't had a losing season yet every year, you
think? Oh, this is the year. It's all finally gonna go to hell and then it, it never does go
to hell. But then if you look at Denver, they play the Patriots Buns, you play the Chargers
horrible with Easton Stick. Then you put the Raiders iii, I mean, you look at the NFL right
now, especially in the AFC and there's just so many ways the uh the cookie can crumble. Um I'm
looking at as I think Jacksonville does, hold on, I think they do win at one of the AFC South.
Um I, I'm gonna go ahead and say Buffalo and Miami. I think that week 18 game is going to be
for the AFC East. I'm gonna go on a little. Uh Do you think the Dolphins are losing their next
two games? Uh They only have to lose one more but yeah, I mean, it could happen. It's Cowboys,
Ravens, cowboys, Ravens Bill. So yeah, we looked at this last week and so I had the
Dolphins ending up as the wild card with the Bills winning the AFC East. I have the Browns
in, right. So it leaves one spot left. Wow, don't the CJ
Stroud propaganda got to me, dude. I, you know who was on CJ? Stroud and the Texans this year?
It was this guy preseason, but I think they're still a little early. II, I like the way the
Colts end the season. They play the Falcons who I don't think are any good. They play the
Raiders who I don't think are any good. I know they put up 63 points. Come on, they're,
they're fooling you. Um, and then they, they play week 18 against the Texans. The issue is,
it's in Indy, give me the home team with a chance to make the playoffs. They blew it last
year, right? Remember they had the chance to make it and then they blew it against the Jags
this year. They learned their lesson. They'll make it in. I'm, it's close. I just may, maybe
part of it is a rooting thing too. Like ideally you'd want the seven best quarterbacks
facing off against one another and I want to be in the playoffs too. Hey, to, to, to, to
make my preseason prediction. I want to root for the Texans too. Come on. I, I was high on
them, but I'm also trying to be unbiased at this point in the season. I think the loss of
Tank Dell, uh, has been a underrated talking point about a against this Houston team. Again,
your Jets put up 30 against the defense, they were just so banged up and they were pulling
hot, the hot dog vendor out to have him play wide receiver that game, but that's to the
defense Yeah, but I think the defense has got put really
like unadded you right now. That game in particular gave me
a lot of cause I, I love the way the Texans are building this team right now. I loved all
of their off-season moves. I love their draft. But I'm telling you right now that game give me
so much cause to pause, especially offensive with no 10 Dale and they were also missing
Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins got banged to Mala stuff, but defensively as well, that may
have been my biggest talking point. My biggest takeaway, they might not be there yet. A Colts
team that can put up a lot of points. They play very weird games. Um I'm gonna take the
Colts at home in week 18 and that's going to be the, uh, the deal breaker for me. Now,
looking at the NFC, obviously, San Fran Dallas Philly, those three teams are in already comes
down to who wins the NFC, East Dallas or, or, um, or Philly. Uh, the Eagles had
an inside track until they blew it last night against Drew Locke. Uh Detroit right now is
leading the NFC North and in the Atrocious NFC South. Uh, right now, Tampa Bay is in the
lead sitting at seven and seven, New Orleans is seven and seven as well, but Tampa Bay has
the tiebreaker. Maybe this might be hot take, I feel like there's gonna be two NFC South
teams in the playoffs because I feel like the, the Saints play the Rams on Thursday night
football this week, I feel like whoever wins that game is gonna be one of the wild cards
because the Rams are seven and seven and if they win then they're eight and seven with Sean
mcveigh, one of the best coaches in the league got a super bowl. Matthew Stafford still
cooking Puan AUA Cooper Cup as good of a 12 punch as we've seen in the NFC at wide receiver
just this year, performance wise. So that could be enough. And then if New Orleans gets
it, they're right in seven. Derek Carr, it's easy to make fun of Derek Carr. He really has
turned a corner last six weeks. His pass rain is like 100 5 so he is playing better. I like
the defense. I think they got some winnable games coming up. I feel like whoever wins this
Thursday night game, that's one of the wild card spots. Obviously, either Philly or Dallas
is gonna have one of the other ones and then I just feel like Minnesota is gonna fall out of
it because I think I got a credit to Kevin o'connell. I don't know why Vikings fans want
him fired, but Kevin o'connell, I think he's done a very good job in some really tough
situations because he loses Justin Jefferson, then he gets them back and Kirk Cousins is gone.
He, he's really he's got all the juice out of this orange that he possibly can. But I think
they're eventually going to fall off because Nick Mullins and Josh Dobbs or maybe Jaron Hall
or whoever the quarterback is. I don't know, as good as Brian Flores defense is. I don't
know if that's a viable recipe for success in the NBA. I said the Vikings were gonna make the
playoffs even after their horrendous start to the season. I kept saying I was pounding the
Vikings train and then of course, Kirk Cousins went down, uh I'm out on them now. I feel bad
to an extent because I think they're a better team than some of the other teams that are
probably gonna make the playoffs end of the day, injuries happen. And last year everything
went their way and one score games this year, they've lost uh a game, the Cardinals by one.
Vikings by three Eagles by six Chargers by four. the last week. Yeah.
Well, yeah, they, they um there's another one point game, they lost to, uh they lost to the
Broncos by one, the Bears by two. Um And then the Bengals obviously in that three point uh
overtime loss, but their schedule is very tough. They play the Lions twice still as well
as the Green Bay Packers. So to me, I have the Vikings schedule, a Bears fan, the schedule.
So the vi are the Vikings falling out. I have Seattle making it because you look at their
final three games, Titans Steelers, but that game is at home and then against Cardinals. Uh
that could easily be 30 for Seattle, especially if they decide to go back to Geno
Smith, who knows? Um Obviously Drew Locke had a great final drive, but up until that point,
he was struggling. This is coming from a Mizo fan, although I will say that uh finale was
phenomenal. Are, are you out on Green Bay too? You think they're out of it because they got,
they got Packers Vikings Bears for the last three games or Panthers Vikings Bears rather.
Yeah, man, that's easy. Uh I don't think two teams from the NFC South make it, they play
each other too much. They're going to beat up on each other. Someone's gonna have to win
those games and they're, they're gonna knock one of one of them out. So I think it's gonna
be the Rams in Seattle. Um, that get, oh man. Yeah, because I think, I think the Rams beat
the Saints this week, but then I think the Saints end up making the playoffs in the NFC
South because I think they'll beat, um, uh Tampa Bay. Uh week 17, God, that's a
horrendous division. I, the only one worse I remember, I think the Panthers went 78 and 11
year with Cam and they won that division and then they won a playoff game because the
Cardinals had Ryan Lindley who was like the worst quarterback I've ever seen him and Tim
Boyle are the two worst quarterbacks I've ever seen. And I think they won a playoff game that
year. It was the year before Cam went crazy when the MVP, they won seven games and won a
playoff game. Uh, Le le le, let's talk about the, the, uh, the Eagles again because I, we
brought this up last week. How big of an issue is there in Philly right now? Because I
like a lot of the pieces like you look at the roster and I think it's a very talented roster.
Then you see James Bradbury getting cooked by JSN. He might just be washed at this point.
Darius Slay has not been the same big game slay that we have seen. We've talked about the
secondary, but the defensive line as good as they are. We're not seeing a lot of the same
pressures and sacks from last year. Uh, not just defensively offensively, Jalen Hurtz does
not look to be the same guy. Um, what have you seen from this Eagles team? They're, they're on
a roller coaster going down right now. Can they ever get back up? Well, I do think it's
funny that after the Chiefs beat him in the Super Bowl, they tried to make Jonathan Gannon
look like this clueless Buffoon who had no idea what he was doing and then he ends up
getting a head coaching job with the Cardinals . Sean decide looks infinitely worse than
Jonathan Gannon ever did with mostly the same players. But I got a bone to pick as much as
there are problems schematically with the Eagles. I think that putting vaunted offensive
coordinator Matt Patricia charge of the defense was a bad decision. The DEAI hire
didn't make sense. They got old really quickly like Darius Slay was great last year. He just
got old really quickly. Same with Bradbury. Kevin Byard hasn't really been the addition. I
thought he would be as a safety. They don't really have a linebacker. They had TJ Edwards,
they didn't pay him. So the linebacking core is really bad. So unless they don't get
consistent defensive pressure, the defense is bad, but I got a bone to pick with this fan
base too because unit as a Jets fan, you don't like the AFC East fan bases. If you take that
out of it, they might be the most reviled now because, uh, these tweets I'm seeing Brian
Johnson is the worst offensive coordinator in the league. Nick Ceriani. This is a true tweet.
Nick Ceriani is a puppet head coach. He doesn't know what he's doing. I'm, I'm more
embarrassed than I was in the four and 12 season where Andy Reid got fired. Like, can we
get a grip for two seconds, please? Like there are problems with this Eagles team. Admittedly,
the offense. Yeah, it is a little vanilla I think they should be getting more out of Jalen
Hurtz right now, Hertz has made a lot more bad decisions than he did last year, especially
when he's playing from behind too. I think what made him so great last year is they were
always up and he could just run you over with that great offensive line. They're not doing
that this year, but the, the sky is not falling. This is a 10 and four for crying out
loud. That still has a very good offense. Jalen Hurtz has 31 total touchdowns this year.
Even with some of the problems, the front four is still very good. They just need to figure
out a way to get better defensive back play. Maybe it's too late in the season. But you know
what, this is still a good team and I think if any team in the playoffs gets Philly, I don't
think anybody's going. Oh, yeah, we get the Eagles. They're terrible. They have a horrible
coach. Nobody's thinking like that. Like, can we, can we calm down please Eagles fans? I know
that you, you got a reputation to play up to and you gotta be angry for the bit and all that.
But I mean, come on guys, you were 10 and one, I mean, with your only lost being to Zach
Wilson a couple weeks ago for crying out loud and you looked unbeatable and it was, oh,
they're gonna just coast to the number one seed. Like, like things don't change that much
when everybody's healthy in three weeks. I, I will say coming from a guy who's wearing a
76ers pull over right now, OK. They, they got to calm him down, they got to calm him down.
Um I still think they're a good team. They're not a elite team, but outside of the
49er, there's not an elite team in the NFL right now. The Ravens are the only one you can
make a case for. But again, it's, it's the same thing you said. Maybe Baltimore, I said
the same thing. It's always, well, maybe Baltimore, if there are, maybe, I don't think
they're there. The Niners are the only team in my mind right now. They're sitting here. Yeah,
that's, that's an elite team. It's wide open. Every team has issues. Every team. The Eagles
right now are like Kansas City pointing at each other great team, but one fatal flaw, the
secondary versus the wide receivers. Like it's very similar. It's like, it's very similar how
close they really are. And you looked at that game that when the Chiefs played the Eagles,
what it came down to is the Chiefs couldn't take advantage of the weak Eagles secondary.
That's what it came down to. Um who was worse, the Chiefs receivers or the Buns Eagles
secondary members, Chiefs receivers. That was the correct answer apparently. So that's what
it comes down to. I mean, every team has a flaw. So everyone's so upset. I know people in
Kansas City with the receivers and Eagles fans with the secondary. Um, you know, you look at
Baltimore, I don't think there's really a fatal flaw necessarily. I think their wide
receiver play could be better. The loss of Mark Andrews was huge, but Isaiah likely has
been stepping up. You look at Miami, you know, you look at times on the defense as well as the
offensive line, um Buffalo Bills, right? Their inability to
have anything go besides Josh Allen until recently when James Cook has been a massive
factor. Like every team has Detroit, whenever they like play a big game, the defense doesn't
really show up. So Cowboys, same thing, play a team over 500 their ass. Like it's the
same thing. Every team has flaws and that's why this playoff, uh this year is gonna be
incredible. That's the funny thing too. One thing about the Eagles too, it's, it'd be one
thing if they did like a Marlins after they won the World Series and just tore everything
down and then they're like, oh, the secondary is battling, this is pretty much the same team
and then they're acting like this is some great indictment on the coaching staff and now
he rose and it's like last year they were great and you love them. Now there's some minor
decline. I mean, the, the biggest decline I think has been with Slay and Bradbury on the
outside. But again, like how is that the coaching staff's fault sometimes physically
guys just don't have it as much anymore. Well, the Chiefs wide receivers, same thing, it's the
same thing outside of Juju Smith Schuster. In the addition of, of RSI Rice, the issue is the
veteran mvs has regressed and sky Moore also regressed which you don't expect a rookie going
into a second year to actually regress instead of get better. Cas Tony also regress, you
regressive year, Tony, like is there a point to regress to, can you go through the ground to
regress? Like, I don't think you can tough but fair. Uh All right, I want to talk about that.
You're the backup quarterback because that's what this year has been. I mean, you look
around the NFL and we, we've talked about playoff teams with backup quarterbacks. How
impressed have you been with the level of production from backup quarterbacks? Which
backup quarterbacks do you think are legitimate and gonna get an opportunity to
start next season? And you know, have we been undervaluing the backup quarterback
for too long? Have we been undervaluing or should I say even overvaluing the quarterback
play of a starter, making way more of a difference? Like you look at, you mentioned it
with Jacksonville, like you can have a really good quarterback, but if the rest of the team
is not complete, you're not gonna get a, get a ton of wins. CC Chargers, Justin Herbert, but
perfect. Yeah, I mean, that's, that's, I think that looking at the backup quarterbacks too,
like it's easy to say, like there's just been almost like a renaissance of backup quarterback
play, but if you look at the ones where they're playing the best, it's also teams good
offensive coaching staffs. Jake Browning and Cincinnati Zach Taylor, very well regarded. I
don't know why his brother, the OC for the Jaguars is not as good as he is. But anyway,
Cincinnati is regarded as a great offensive coaching staff and Jake Brown is playing very
well. Gardner MSU in Indianapolis with, uh, with Shane Steichen over there, then if you go
to backups that don't have very good offensive coaching staffs, the Cavalcade of Giants
quarterbacks Easton stick with the Chargers, Zach Wilson and all the rest of the guys in the
clown car with the Jets. It looks as bad as anything. The Jets have one or fewer offensive
touchdowns in 12 of their 14 games. That's what happens when you had the Kansas City and
Houston were the only two where they had two or more and they have zero and four of them.
That's what happens when you don't give a backup quarterback, a good offensive coaching
staff because a good offensive coaching staff can at least identify even though he doesn't
have the talent that like a Joe Burrow or an Anthony Richardson would have, they can
identify where he's really good and they could figure out the game plan on a week to week
basis to get the most out of them when you don't have that. I feel like teams can get very
defeatist with their backup quarterback and they go, well, nothing really matters. It's a
backup quarterback. Let's be super safe, super conservative. Don't try to have him make a
mistake. Even the Seahawks were doing that with Locke before the, the last drive,
everything was short and Dan and Duncan like, II, I really don't want to be one of those guys
where it's like you gotta hire an offensive coach because Belichick Tom and Carroll are
defensive coaches. Domico Rins was, is a defensive coach, he's gonna probably win coach
of the year. So I'm not on that. But if you have doubts about your starter, it just helps
so much to get an offensive coach because it's just, you could see the gears turning and you
could see how they're getting put in good situations. Like if, if Jake Browning was on
the Jets right now or the Bears or the Cardinals, is he performing like this? I
don't think so. Even Gardner Minu, if Gardner Minu is on the Giants or New England or
Carolina, is he playing like this? I don't think so of these guys who do you
think gets a long term opportunity or at least short term opportunity? I allow Baker Mayfield
to start again, right? Because Baker was going to be the perpetual backup. Got an opportunity
this season in Tampa, Geno Smith, perpetual backup, got an opportunity to start last year
in Seattle. He kept that opportunity, you know , of the, I think Drew Locke's obviously too
early to say he had one game and quite frankly one drive and even on that drive, he had a
couple of questionable throws. Right? But Dr Locke for you, but, but, but, but who do you
think has an opportunity? Let's say like New England might have a spot open. Let's be real.
Now. Um, Chicago might be a little interesting with whether they drop a quarterback or not and
Justin Fields might hit the open market. Where is he gonna go? New England obviously is a spot
though. I think where everyone's wondering who is going to be the guy, the Jets. What happened
to the Aaron Rodgers, the Giants, Daniel Jones coming back? But is he still the dude? Um, Sam
Howell, how, how convinced are you in Washington? I mean, there, there'll be some
spots, right? I, I there's always gonna be spots you, you look at, um, the Raiders is
Aidan o'connell, the dude Pittsburgh. But, but Pittsburgh with Kenny Pickett, like, who do you
think of these guys who've got an opportunity this season? Who do you think sticks as a
starter next year? Are you gonna laugh at me if I say Brock Purdy? Come on. Now. Come on.
Now, I I, all right, I've accepted what Brock Purdy is. He's not the MVP, but I've accepted
that what he is. I think damn good mins you, if anybody I feel like is gonna get a
legitimate starting offer because number one he's played, it's not just like a 345 game
sample size, which is always the tough part with backup quarterbacks. It's gauging, well,
anybody can look good for five games. Is that because he's good or because he, he got hot for
a month because nobody had tape on him. Minu at least has years of even though he wasn't
just lighting the world on fire. Like he was a pretty good starter in Jacksonville. Service
will back up in Philly and then he goes to Indy and he's performing at a level, we can get
them to the playoffs. So, Mins is the one where I think legitimately he could end up
getting a starting role outside of that. Maybe I could see somebody getting fooled with Jake
Brown and like, if he keeps playing, like he is the rest of the year and if he gets the
Bengals of the playoffs and maybe if he, I don't know, wins a playoff game or even
performs really well in a playoff loss, I think some team might be like, all right, we'll
make you like a fringe starter in front of our rookie quarterback kind of thing again. A
Washington, the Giants, something like that. But that's all dependent on Jake Brown and
still continuing this, Jeremy Lin Lin Sanity run that he's currently on like Minu and I
would have said Jacoby Brissett in Washington if he got kind of a longer leash, but he hasn't
really played a lot this year because of Sam Howell. I, I do think by 2024 Minu is gonna be
a weak one starting quarterback. I don't think it'll be with the Colts because I think they're
going to move ahead with Anthony Richardson and I think he's kind of played himself out of
regular backup money, which is what the Colts are probably gonna want to ask for him. I think
somewhere Minu will end up being a starter. Yeah. Uh All right. Now let's head into next
week's bets. Ok, Mike, let's do it. Let's see. Uh, we were on a heater last week
for me at least because I went two and one and that constitutes a heater in my book because I
am not very good at this, but some, I have been very lucky all season long and I am
exactly now. 522 22 and one. Yes, there's a
tie. Uh, Ian went one and two last week in week 15. He is sitting at
2022. He's been on a, uh, a cold streak. He was crushing. He was like 16 and nine at one
point. Uh, we got to get Ian right. Maybe that's why he's sick today because of uh his
performance for the past couple of weeks. Uh He like he's running from the music. Sounds
like he's ducking the criticism here. He, he, he, he took the Falcons minus three last week.
They lost to the Panthers. I took Baltimore minus 3.5. They easily covered. Uh Last week
he had jets dolphins under 40 a half. That one hit for him as the Jets, as you mentioned, did
not score. I had Vikings, I had Vikings, Bengals over 38.5. That was
easily over. Uh and we both had Bears over Browns. We couldn't think of a good upset one
last week and if you look around there weren't a ton of upsets to be had. We thought that game
was looking good the entire way in the fourth quarter happened where the Bears choked and Joe
Flacco turned back into 2012 Joe Flacco and got it done. If I'm looking at this
week though. This is, but this is like a bet the house on everything like go go and double
what you got like pay for kids, college, everything bet like that slam Eagles minus 10.5
this week. I love it. I there's just something about good teams when they get embarrassed in
prime time and then the next week they go crush. I mean, look at Miami that will Levis
and the Titans have a crazy comeback. Against them and then they just completely humiliate
the Jets quarterback difficulty curve. What it is? It's still a 30 to nothing win in the NFL.
That's really against a good defense. That's really hard to do. I have a hard time believing
the Eagles against Tommy Devito, who I am sick of as an Italian guy from Central Jersey. I am
sick of Tommy Devito and the whole like pasta meatballs devito thing. I'm, I'm getting sick
of it. The dudes last name Luciano, I think he's got a good insight on this one. I'm
qualified to speak on these issues. I'm sick of Tommy devito. Seems like a nice guy, but I'm
sick of the whole his agent wearing a pinstripe suit. Like he's freaking Al Capone on
Monday night football when he knew the TV cameras would be on him. I'm not, I'm not like
happy he's losing. He seems like a really nice guy and I'm happy that was kind of like a great
undrafted success story kind of thing. But I feel like last week against the Saints, he kind
of regressed to the mean a little bit and I feel like the Eagles are gonna be really kind
of out for blood after a really embarrassing Monday night loss. I feel like they're just
gonna open up a can of whoop ass on the Giants . Yeah, I love that one. There are actually a
lot of uh spread picks I liked this week uh, do or the Eagles was one, the one I like is the
Dolphins over the Cowboys, Dolphins. Uh, 1.5 point favorites again. The Cowboys can't be
anyone good at home. I mean, it can't, can't be anyone good on the road. Um, you know, they,
they struggled anytime the Cowboys play any good team, they get beat, they get beat bad
again. I think Miami has a, maybe not quite the home field advantage over other teams, uh,
because the Cowboys play in Dome, right. But I do think there's something to play in warm
weather at this time of year compared to playing in the snow and the cold. Um, but I, I
like the Dolphins a lot at home in this game. See the thing with me though, if I'm looking at
this at this schedule because I, I have some thoughts on Dolphins, Cowboys a little bit
later because I don't know if I necessarily agree with a lot of that because I think this
could be prime upset territory. But if I'm looking at this week too, like the over under
bets are kind of funny to me because there's so many like under 40 point games, which is
kind of emblematic of kind of what's happened with all the injuries this year. And I think
the fact is defense have adjusted very well. Another like slam slam it, pay for a vacation
kind of bet is under 36.5 in Packers Panthers because like, we know what Bryce Young is in
when Bryce Young is bad. So, honestly, so bad that I remember I was having this discussion
off the air with somebody where I said if Carolina had the number one pick with that,
some people at least think about going with, with a quarterback again. I mean, that's how
bad it's been for Bryce Young this year. So why is it under, even though Jordan Love is,
has 25 touchdowns. Well, because oddly enough, Carolina's got a really good defense the third
in the league in yards allowed a Gir Rivero despite all of this, I think is honestly gonna
get head coaching look because he's performed really well with key guys getting hurt and, and,
and the fact that their offense is always putting them in bad positions, that defense is
still really good. I mean, they, they won a 97 game last week. This is, this looks totally
like a 13 to 10 or a 16 to 13. This is gonna be just a slug fest. It's gonna be nasty. Yeah,
I love that one. I also love commanders at Jets under 38.5, uh under 8.5.
Jets often is atrocious. They still have a very solid defense man. I,
yeah, 38.5 seems, uh crazy Aaron Rodgers completes the the greatest medical
miracle comeback ever and he take 24 like no I'm like, I'm, I'm so out on that,
the under, in that game, which means of course , the over is probably gonna hit. But the under,
in that game, I've never been more confident at picking than in this game right here. It's
like Iowa at the end of this year where the Unders were like 24 for an entire game and they
hit because it would be 13 to 7. Uh All right. Then finally, we'll do the upset pick. Uh,
you're gonna break my heart here, aren't you? I am because I'm going Cowboys over Dolphins
because what was the main criticism of the, of the Cowboys? Well, they can't really be any
good teams. Guess who else doesn't be good teams that often? Dolphins, the Cowboys, it's
not gonna be cold, December, Buffalo weather. It's gonna be Pristine Miami weather. So you're
not gonna have that. And I'm gonna apply the same Eagles principle to this where the Cowboys
got their butt kicked in front of everybody big, not prime time game but a window.
Everybody was watching against a good team pretty much outside of this game. D had like 25
touchdowns in an 89 game span. I mean, that is an unprecedented heater for Dak Prescott. He's
gonna, I think, get back on track. Now, granted, Miami allowed zero points last week
and they're gonna put Jalen Ramsey on CD Lamb which could really throw a wrench into things,
but I just feel like Dak is on such a high level. I can't expect two clunkers in a row in
a pivotal situation like this for the Cowboys. I, I feel like two was gonna get his, but the
offensive line while I think better than people say it is, it is banged up and then you
get Micah Parsons against a banged up offensive line. I don't know if that's
necessarily a great omen for the Dolphins. Yeah, I'm still going Dolphins. I, I just do
not trust this cowboys team against anyone. Good. It's very
untrustworthy game. Uh, which hopefully makes for a good one for me. My final one, uh, my
upset pick is Commanders over your Jets, Mike. I'm sorry, but the Jets they favor, they can't
score a point. It, it blows my mind. Um, but yeah, dude, I'm, I'm, I'm
rolling, rolling with Sam Howell. Slinging. Sam and the Commanders.
The fact that this team don't, the Jets had four total yards of offense in the first half
last week. Good. Good. It's more than three. It's more than three. It is more than three
marginally. But after this week, like once you , once you score four yards and a half, I don't
care who you're playing. I don't care if they were playing Carolina with Ben D Nucci, an XFL
guy playing quarterback. You can't over favor because they're at home. What good is home? Do
they get killed at home too? They threw 100 he pick six on Hail Mary at home. Uh If
you want to follow Mike Luciano and see his incredible just fandom of the Jets shine
through. Follow him at, by Mike Luciano. You can follow me on Twitter as well at Homestretch
KC Ian will be back. Uh I feel bad. Hopefully he feels better. There's nothing worse than
getting sick before the holidays. Uh Mike was, you know, for like watching Taylor Heineke play
football. I'm sure that'll, that'll fix everything up, uh, and no show next week as we
will be off for the holiday. So everyone have a great Christmas happy holidays gonna be fun.
Watch some football and witness the unfolding of madness. That will be the NFL week 16 until
next time we are out.